Posted by: Anonymous Coward
on December 03, 2003 11:04 AM
Maybe this is something I missed, but it seems that in your article you presume that every user who owns a computer will want to develop software for it. Not true.
It is true that there exist many tools out there, such as Visual Basic & clones, that specialize in RAD with little quality control. I see individuals using this for their own purposes (perhaps distributing their own versions so others can use them). But I also see the same sort of competition that exists now. Why? Because user's want to DO something with their computer (like view pictures, create movies, etc - as evidenced most visibly by Apple Computer's product offerings and recent ad campaigns), not just learn how to program it.
College kids, corporate programmers and everyone else will all still write their own software for all sorts of new purposes - and many will try and sell it. But I also see a movement away from learning to program (and practicing it, for that matter) by the majority of people. Those who are left will become a commodity again. And, when the world catches a whiff of the salaries these folks will be drawing in, they'll all want a piece again.
The world moves in cycles. The economy, the ocean, everything. Even the tech industry. If you don't believe me, wait 20 years and see for yourself.
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Not everyone wants to program
Posted by: Anonymous Coward on December 03, 2003 11:04 AMIt is true that there exist many tools out there, such as Visual Basic & clones, that specialize in RAD with little quality control. I see individuals using this for their own purposes (perhaps distributing their own versions so others can use them). But I also see the same sort of competition that exists now. Why? Because user's want to DO something with their computer (like view pictures, create movies, etc - as evidenced most visibly by Apple Computer's product offerings and recent ad campaigns), not just learn how to program it.
College kids, corporate programmers and everyone else will all still write their own software for all sorts of new purposes - and many will try and sell it. But I also see a movement away from learning to program (and practicing it, for that matter) by the majority of people. Those who are left will become a commodity again. And, when the world catches a whiff of the salaries these folks will be drawing in, they'll all want a piece again.
The world moves in cycles. The economy, the ocean, everything. Even the tech industry. If you don't believe me, wait 20 years and see for yourself.
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