Posted by: Anonymous Coward
on June 23, 2004 02:24 AM
The significance of Longhorn, to M$ is that it is the wonder drug to kill off the need for linux. However, the last I have heard is that it will not ship until sometime in 2007. That is 2 1/2 years away. consider the last Dinosaur at http://www.muq.org/%7Ecynbe/rants/lastdino.htm This article was written in 1999 - 5 years ago, and has reasonably acurately predicted the current uptake of linux. As best as I can tell, we now stand at around 5% linux on the desktop. If that is correct, then the worst case we should see in 2 1/2 years is about 25% on the desktop. Assuming that Apple maintains its 5%, that leaves a 70% market share for microsoft, but for how long? If Longhorn has DRM included, and a stiffer call home feature than XP does(which seems very likely) then those very features will most likely drive even more people to linux, rather than block the exodus from windows.
To make maters even more interesting, in 2 1/2 years ReactOS will most likely have something that is very usable. It will be interesting to see how much of a market chunk they can take out of M$.
My best guess is that Longhorn will be the Microsofts last big gasp.
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Re:Other Questions to ask
Posted by: Anonymous Coward on June 23, 2004 02:24 AMTo make maters even more interesting, in 2 1/2 years ReactOS will most likely have something that is very usable. It will be interesting to see how much of a market chunk they can take out of M$.
My best guess is that Longhorn will be the Microsofts last big gasp.
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