How can you predict if an open source project is going to be successful? This is a question I’ve thought a lot about. I’ll be honest I’ve made the mistake of underestimating the potential of an open source project a few times in my career. I certainly remember a number of conversations while at VMware when the group all came to the conclusion that OpenStack would never get any traction. How silly do I feel now? But that begs the question: how could I have known?