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Linux becomes the world's most popular operating system, on the server as well as the desktop. The entire software industry moves to an open development model, and companies in the Linux business do better than any companies have, ever. Apple goes out of business, and Microsoft dissolves. Sun falls off the face of the earth. SGI, who jumped on the Linux bandwagon at the last possible second, manages to survive with the grace of God and a long-handled spoon.

Let's try another one. Linux dominates the server industry, and becomes the de facto standard for enterprise applications around the world. Linux's portability makes it an incredible solution for those who need to do enterprise on a budget, and wins out over BSD because of higher user saturation and a new, stronger security package.

Here's a fun one. Since the industry is completely void of standards, Linux moves into the wireless and portable industry like a shark through water due to the adaptability of the licensing. Mobile Linux (developed by Transmeta) runs on almost every wireless computer and PDA, and power consumption is so low that they've all got strong color screens and fantastic stereo sound.

Frightened? Try this. Microsoft maintains its stranglehold on the industry, and by controlling the development platform, holds all the markets. Other companies who attempt to enter these markets have to go through Microsoft first. Linux desperately tries to keep up with the marketing bonanza, and simply cannot organize to the point where they make an effective saturation point for Linux users. Microsoft takes market share back, and Linux is pushed out of the server and desktop markets. The closed-source, proprietary development model just works better, and customers get fantastic support. Linus Torvalds and Alan Cox decide to become MSCEs.

Scary, eh? Here's another one. Linux retains an extremely strong hold in the niche markets of image manipulation, video editing and audio production. Changes to the Linux kernel make multimedia applications easier to write and maintain. A desktop video editing machine built with Linux runs $100 at the local camera shop.

Check this out. Linux dominates the embedded market, and Linux runs on everything from video cassette recorders to refrigerators, taking the road paved by Java. I don't know how important this really is, but I'll tell you one thing: "Embedded" is the new buzzword du jour in the Linux community. I guess if you're really interested in having Linux running on small electronic devices, you'll really dig this view of the future. All I can say is that in this future scenario, all the companies that are currently putting the words "embedded" and "Linux" into their S-1s are making a ton of money.

I'm reasonably frightened by most of these, to be quite honest. The worst part is that the Microsoft-dominated future is less fantastic than the one where Linux rules the world. I don't think both of them are dystopias, to be quite honest. People need choice and alternatives. I think the best future for Linux is to keep growing, keep getting better, and just let things happen naturally. The best changes are small ones, and the smaller the change, the better the documentation.

Personally, my hope for the future is that Linux grows in the server market and dominates the world of digital assistants and network-capable devices. I don't care what anyone says, Linux isn't anywhere near ready for the desktop yet, although good motion is being made in that direction. I don't even want to deal with widespread Linux on the desktop until it's as easy to use as an iMac.

It's easy for people inside the Linux community to think that Linux is a lot bigger than it really is. Linux remains a niche product, and though we're looking toward the future with Linux, the community needs to stay focused on making the pie bigger without slicing it up just yet. I say, let's keep the options open and get everywhere we can, simply for the sake of experimentation.

See you in seven.

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