Is the Importance of Commercial Linux Distributions Waning?

I have long held that only a commercial Linux distribution with a strong total product offering (product, support, training, reseller channel, etc.) could make the transition to the mainstream market. I’m not alone in this, of course–it’s what led to Red Hat’s success at their IPO. Investors clearly believed that a strong company would generate value in the Linux space. And commercial Linux certainly has generated that value.